782
FXUS64 KMEG 182316
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH AT
THIS HOUR. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA & SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT: LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE REMAINS 50/50 SPLIT ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE NBM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. HOWEVER, OPTED TO BLEND
CONSSHORT DATA INTO MINT TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. THIS CHILLY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
LAUNCHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST INTO THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM AIR BACK TO THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
MUDDY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONFLICT WITH LOCATION &
TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXACT IMPACTS ARE A BIT
DIFFICULT TO TELL, BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT CHRISTMAS EVE WILL
BE WET FOR MANY MID-SOUTHERNERS.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIT
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. NORTH
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ARS
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