597
FXUS64 KMEG 190531
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
DRY AND COOL WEATHER PERSIST AT THE SURFACE, HOWEVER, THERE ARE
QUITE A FEW MOVING PARTS ALOFT THAT COULD AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. THE LATEST GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNEL
REVEALS A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FROM KENTUCKY AND HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
FROM THE NW. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SURGE SSW
INTO THE REGION AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WOULD ACT TO STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO THE FREEZING MARK AND ALSO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHERE WINDS ARE
WEAK AND SKIES ARE CLEAR, THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HREF GUIDANCE IS NOT PINGING ON MUCH FOG, AND THE
CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE NW SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AREAWIDE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
AC3
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH AT
THIS HOUR. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA & SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT: LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE REMAINS 50/50 SPLIT ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE NBM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. HOWEVER, OPTED TO BLEND
CONSSHORT DATA INTO MINT TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. THIS CHILLY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
LAUNCHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST INTO THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM AIR BACK TO THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
MUDDY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONFLICT WITH LOCATION &
TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXACT IMPACTS ARE A BIT
DIFFICULT TO TELL, BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT CHRISTMAS EVE WILL
BE WET FOR MANY MID-SOUTHERNERS.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS AT KMKL AND KTUP OVERNIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH AND LIGHT NORTHEAST ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ARS
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