072
FXUS64 KMEG 190928
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
COLDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 20S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IS MUCH COLDER NOW THAN IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT HAS NOW LIFTED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE NORTHERLIES ACROSS THE REGION AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A NEW SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
DIVE TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY. AN ATTENDANT REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, DRAGGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN EVEN MORE INTO THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AND
ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF DEEP MOISTURE WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING COLDER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND, THE UPSTREAM PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN AND ALLOW MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST AND PROMOTE SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TO ABATE THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY RAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS AT KMKL AND KTUP OVERNIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH AND LIGHT NORTHEAST ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ARS
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