748
FXUS64 KMEG 192014
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
214 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY, EJECTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DETER ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT DURING FROPA. INSTEAD, CAA WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE THE CHILLIEST AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 20S AREAWIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST INTO THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY,
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ORIENT OVER CENTRAL CONUS, MOVING EAST.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PLENTIFUL LOCALLY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE. AS SUCH,
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
RESULTING IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MURKY TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN COMPRISED OF
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY FROM RUN
TO RUN, BUT GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE, SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
SEVERE WEATHER CORRIDOR OVER OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, CHANGES IN EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM ARE INEVITABLE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR ANY CHANGES.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
SOME STRATUS LINGERS NEAR TUP, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
MEM, JBR AND MKL. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS
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