260
FXUS64 KMEG 200521
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY, EJECTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DETER ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT DURING FROPA. INSTEAD, CAA WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE THE CHILLIEST AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 20S AREAWIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST INTO THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY,
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ORIENT OVER CENTRAL CONUS, MOVING EAST.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PLENTIFUL LOCALLY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE. AS SUCH,
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
RESULTING IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MURKY TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN COMPRISED OF
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY FROM RUN
TO RUN, BUT GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE, SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
SEVERE WEATHER CORRIDOR OVER OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, CHANGES IN EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM ARE INEVITABLE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR ANY CHANGES.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KJBR AREA BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT, THIS SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE KMKL AREA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY EVENING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ARS
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