481
FXUS64 KMEG 201122
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
522 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A DRY AND COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SPANNING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS MISSOURI,
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, MANY WILL
LIKELY SEE STAGNANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH AND MID 40S TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL TONIGHT UNDER A CLEARING
SKY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 20S. UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AIDING TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT TO BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN WILL
UNFOLD BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME,
WITH GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. SHORTLY BEHIND, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NW
U.S., LIKELY BRINGING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO THE AREA. GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THAT THE MID-SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A
WETTER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL NOT GET INTO
EXACT SPECIFICS SINCE THERE ARE STARK DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS BEING SAID, THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY IS
TRENDING IN A WET DIRECTION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF DECEMBER IN THE MID 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MOSTLY VFR TODAY WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY, GUSTING TO ABOVE 20 THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE MVFR
CEILING OVER MO/IL THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. SOME VFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JBR/MEM WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR AT MKL THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY APPROACHING
00Z AND DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET, LASTING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
JBR HAS BEEN DISPLAYING 2-5 SM HZ THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SO, HAVE
KEPT A TEMPO IN THE INITIAL FM GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY VISIBILITY
DROPS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ANY HAZE THAT DOES EXIST WILL
DISSIPATE BY 16Z WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB
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