247
FXUS64 KMEG 210545
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
GOES-16 SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AS DRIER AIR HAS ERODED SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER. LATEST 00Z HREF SUGGESTS MOISTURE IN THE 925-900 MB LAYER
MAY INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE
READJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
CJC
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING
TREND BEGINS MONDAY. THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS
SHOWERS IMPACT THE REGION. BEYOND MIDWEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES
MURKY BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS
HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S AREAWIDE. EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S AREAWIDE.
COLD AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REINFORCED ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE, EMBEDDED ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGER TROUGH, MOVES OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 40S.
UNFORTUNATELY, COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY, BUT EXACT TIMING OF ONSET IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE
RETURNS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GFS REMAINS BULLISH AND FAVORS ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS
MOISTURE AT BAY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SHOWER FORMATION
LATER INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. REGARDLESS, BOTH MODELS FAVOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON
CHRISTMAS. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE HOLIDAY WILL BE WET AND
DREARY.
A TRICKY FORECAST MATERIALIZES BY THURSDAY AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE THING THE GFS AND ECMWF DO AGREE ON:
FRIDAY'S TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES EAST. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE IS UP FOR DEBATE, BUT GIVEN ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. WHETHER
THAT WILL OCCUR HERE IS TOO EARLY TO TELL, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SOME HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE POST FRONTAL STRATOCU DECK BUT
THESE ARE ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FILLING IN. MKL AND TUP LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY WHILE DROPPING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MEM SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT AROUND NOON. THERE IS SOME MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE
THAT SUGGESTS CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER INTO SATURDAY. N WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AND EXPECT N/NE WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
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