218
FXUS64 KMEG 240401
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
QUICK UPDATE. A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AT
THIS HOUR. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. A SOLID STRATOCUMULUS
DECK HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
AS SEEN ON GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNEL. THIS
CLOUD DECK HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS FROM KNQA. UPON LOOKING AT LZK'S 00Z SOUNDING AND A
FEW ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM MEM, THERE IS ICE BEING MADE ALOFT WITH A
WARM LAYER BENEATH IT. THE GAP BETWEEN BOTH LAYERS IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FORMATION. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE HIGH AT
THE SURFACE, BUT HAVE STEADILY CLIMBED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. WITH
RATHER DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWEST COLUMN, ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
WILL LIKELY SUBLIMATE INTO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WENT
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
BY TOMORROW MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AC3
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR JANUARY FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BACK THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM CAMS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS VERY LOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY AS MID-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE UP TO ONE-QUARTER TO
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
WEEK THEN EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER WITH NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40. HOWEVER, TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES WARRANT LOW END
RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK IS CAUSING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT
A DRY LAYER IS MOST LIKELY PREVENTING ANY FLURRIES FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWN NO EVIDENCE OF -SN SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHER THAN THAT, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE FROM THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CAD
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