619
FXUS64 KMEG 241115
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
515 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY, FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY EVENING. MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
LAST EVENING'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL DAY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN MS THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE MS RIVER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
SPREAD THROUGH HE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, UNDER FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY WARM ABOVE 30F WEST OF THE
MS RIVER. BY SUNDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S OVER NORTH
MS, REPRESENTATIVE OF MODIFIED MARITIME AIR. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-40. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AIDED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICT COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS, WITH DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND SOUTHERN MS ON SUNDAY.
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, UNDER SOUTHERN BRANCH RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW, DOWNSTREAM OF
A CUT-OFF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF
THIS UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT RAIN CHANCE TIMING FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. IN ANY CASE, MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS
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