127
FXUS64 KMEG 242030
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TOMORROW, ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM AND RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MEMPHIS ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY AIR TEMPERATURES.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED PROVIDING ENOUGH MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY REACHED 40 DEGREES TODAY. VERY WEAK
RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FINALLY REACH
THE DOUBLE DIGITS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
ALLOWING FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
BACK INTO THE 20S FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES TOMORROW
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SWATH
OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY COLUMN OF
AIR ALMOST EXTENDING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN, WHICH IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYS OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE. WITH NEAR AVERAGE PWS, VERY
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN WILL REACH THE SURFACE UNLESS INTENSE
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER AFTER LONG HOURS OF RETURN FLOW AND VIRGA, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. NOT
MUCH QPF IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY AIR. PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST HALF AN INCH ARE 30% OR LESS, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR REACHING AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
MILD AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES WILL REIGN NEXT WEEK AND A
SOGGY MIDWEEK IS EXPECTED. DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF A CUT-OFF LOW
WILL BRING BATCHES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. GUIDANCE IS
STILL A BIT MESSY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH
RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCE TIMING FOR MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, HOWEVER FOR MILD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGY BY THE LATE
WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW/W WINDS BETWEEN
5-9 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, THEN BACK SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 7-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC
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