292
FXUS64 KMEG 251054
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
454 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT,
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
PEAKING NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY, UNDER FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AFTER AN EXTENDED OF PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, TODAY'S HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH RETREATING ARCTIC AIR, NBM
APPEARS TO WARM DEWPOINTS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVELY. OFFICIAL
FORECAST GRIDS FOLLOWED THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED MARITIME AIR WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LIKELY ABOVE
900MB, AS DEPICTED BY NAM TIME-HEIGHT PROGS AND HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE NEAR THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB 130KT SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MODEST LIFT AND
PWAT OF 0.75-1.00 INCHES OVER NORTH MS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
UNDER SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE POLAR JET WILL
REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY HOWEVER, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THE NORTHEAST US. UNDER CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH,
COOLING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN, BUT FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RIDGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. COMPARISON
OF 00Z LREF AND 01Z NBM SHOWS SOME TIME-LAGGED MODEL INPUT MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LINGERING QFP AND LOW POPS IN THE NBM.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS, ECMWF AND GDPS DEPICT THIS LOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S TOO EARLY
FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN TAKE-
AWAY IS THAT MIDSOUTH RAIN CHANCE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH NEXT
WEEKEND.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
VFR. A LLJ WILL DEVELOP UP ACROSS EASTERN AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. EXPECT LLWS AT JBR THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW SHRAS WILL PUSH INTO THE
DELTA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...SJM
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