023
FXUS64 KMEG 261047
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
447 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN MONDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A COUPLE DEGREES OVER TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
MIDSOUTH WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN TO START THE WEEK, COURTESY OF MODEST
ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME WETBULB
COOLING WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UNDER CONFLUENT
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH
HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIFT FROM EAST TX INTO OZARKS ON
WEDNESDAY. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVER-TOP THE RIDGE TO SOME
EXTENT ON WEDNESDAY, AS A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH. EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS WILL BE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MAY SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY. BUT AT THIS TIME, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED, WITH LREF DEPICTED 250 J/KG CAPE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES BELOW 5 PERCENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEAST OK BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW, ENDING RAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CREATES LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INCLUDING TUP WITH MEM SITTING
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. MKL AND JBR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON SUNDAY WITH IFR CONDS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY EVENING AT MEM, MKL AND TUP. LIGHT S WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO N/NE ONCE THE FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH. CONDS WILL START
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...SJM
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