301
FXUS64 KMEG 261716
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS
TIME. THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM
CST ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
LATEST SHORT-TERM TRENDS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH OF I-40 INTO THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE TO RAIN CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE.
CJC
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN MONDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A COUPLE DEGREES OVER TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
MIDSOUTH WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN TO START THE WEEK, COURTESY OF MODEST
ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME WETBULB
COOLING WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UNDER CONFLUENT
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH
HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIFT FROM EAST TX INTO OZARKS ON
WEDNESDAY. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVER-TOP THE RIDGE TO SOME
EXTENT ON WEDNESDAY, AS A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH. EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS WILL BE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MAY SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY. BUT AT THIS TIME, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED, WITH LREF DEPICTED 250 J/KG CAPE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES BELOW 5 PERCENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEAST OK BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW, ENDING RAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN
THE RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENT VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING.
IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING SOME BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS
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