492
FXUS64 KMEG 270521
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOWER 60S
BY MID WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN BY LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NEARLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE, BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY BACK ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR IN TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS. MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE NEAREST RAIN SHOWERS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR FORT
SMITH, AR. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS
INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN
0.50-1.00 INCH TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LESSER AMOUNTS
NORTH TOWARDS I-40.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATEST LONG-TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY LATE WEEK. LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENT AS THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.25-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
FOR THE TIME BEING AS LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST PROBABILITIES
FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 250 J/KG OR GREATER REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 5 PERCENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ABSORBED INTO
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIER AIR
FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
MID-SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT LIFR CONDS AT TUP AND
MVFR CONDS AT MEM AND MKL. RAIN WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM
NW TO SE. LIGHT N/NNE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W/NW FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page