882
FXUS64 KMEG 271115
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
515 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, REMAINING IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S TODAY AND REACHING THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
A FEW, LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN/MS STATE LINE AND
THROUGH NORTH MS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE "COOLEST" DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. RELATIVELY
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK RIDGE
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
A BIT EACH DAY INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SW ON THURSDAY,
APPROACHING THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY FAST-PACED, BUT THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL
BE HOW EARLY MOISTURE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY HOLDING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WHILE SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIPITATION IN EARLY
ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS IS STILL IN THE DAY 4 RANGE, WON'T GET
INTO TOO MANY SPECIFICS LOCATION WISE, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5+ INCH RANGE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION, NBM
PROBABILITIES DO HAVE A 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF MOST OF THE AREA
SEEING OVER 2 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THE 75TH
PERCENTILE SHOWING SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3+ INCHES. FROM A
SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT, THIS IS LOOKING PREDOMINATELY LIKE A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT, BUT WON'T RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MIX WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
BY SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MANY SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
CURRENT LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE WEST TONIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS
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