418
FXUS64 KMEG 280521
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. TOOK LOWS DOWN A BIT MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE
WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. SOME PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD MONROE COUNTY. THAT AREA WAS LATE TO CLEAR AND THE DRIER
AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALLOWING HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK TO WARM
TO THE LOW 60S.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL EMERGE ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EJECT FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. 12Z GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT AMPLE MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS IMPACTS THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AT THIS TIME WILL BE LACKING,
LEADING TO A NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INSTEAD, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE NUISANCE FLOODING AS ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES
ENCOURAGE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING REMAINS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES. THIS MAY
AGGRAVATE RIVERS AND STREAMS, RESULTING IN RISES NEAR BANKFULL.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS NORTH WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG CONTINUE SOUTH OF TUP BUT WILL NOT IMPACT
THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT MEM/JBR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ024.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MSZ024.
TN...NONE.
UPDATE...SJM
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...MJ
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