942
FXUS64 KMEG 282342
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
DRY AND WARM TODAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH
A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE UPPER PATTERN, WHICH CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A
WEAKENING WESTERN REX BLOCK AND AN EASTERN TROUGH, WILL KEEP THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERPERFORMED MOST GUIDANCE TODAY,
WITH MOST AREAS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
BY THURSDAY, THE WESTERN BLOCKING REGIME WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK AND
ALLOW THE STRANDED UPPER LOW TO BEGIN MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE
ADVECTED IN WITHIN A SUBTROPICALLY ENHANCED, SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO SURFACE LOWS, ONE FORMING ALONG
THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE FORMER IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ADVECT SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE MOUNTING UPPER HUMIDITY WITH NAEFS (BOTH
GEFS/ENS) CARRYING > 99TH PERCENTILE PWATS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS LOW. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DETERMINED BY WHETHER AREAS
EXPERIENCE STRATIFORM OR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. AN
AREA OF ISENTROPICALLY FORCED STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FORM
NORTH OF I-40, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
WITH UP TO 2.5" OF RAINFALL. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING A QUICK SHOT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY EVENING THAT COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM
1"- 2" OF RAIN.
ON THE TOPIC OF CONVECTION, THE SPC HAS INCLUDED A FEW COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE EASTERN SURFACE
LOW, STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED HERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GUIDANCE HAS
SOME INSTABILITY MAKING INTO THESE REGIONS, BUT MOST OF IT REMAINS
ELEVATED. THEREFORE, THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS ARE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING FORECAST PERIODS.
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO SATURDAY. A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND 700 MB CAA COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED,
SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WEST TENNESSEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TOO COARSE OF A RESOLUTION TO
PROPERLY DISPLAY QPF THAT WOULD LEND TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO. REGARDLESS, SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE CLEAR AS THE UPPER
DRY AIR WINS OVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER WINDS
NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH, LEAVING US IN A MILD AND RELATIVELY QUIET
REGIME. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING MEM/JBR ARE STILL REPORTING GUSTS AT THE
MOMENT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STABILIZE AROUND 6-7 KTS THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH MS AROUND 7 KFT AGL
WITH HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS INCREASING AS WELL. THE CURRENT CROP OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY
SOUTH OF A TUP LINE TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA
CLOSELY. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...MJ
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