032
FXUS64 KMEG 292349
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
549 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH
ON THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40,
WHERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A MILD WINTER DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
40 PERCENT. THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED POLEWARD.
A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MULTIPLE
PERTURBATIONS, EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO MAX
OUT CLIMATOLOGY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES.
12Z HREF GUIDANCE HAS ZEROED IN ON A BAND OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO
INTERSTATE 40. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH TO COVER MOST
OF THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-40, WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER EMERGING THREAT IS STRONG WIND GUSTS, MAINLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE OZARKS AND A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET. HREF GUIDANCE IS PINGING
ON 40 MPH GUSTS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY, DUE TO
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAIN POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BUILD AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
ZONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING IN SIMILAR FASHION, MAINLY AFTER 08Z.
PREVAILING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT JBR, BUT A BIT
OF A LULL IS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/TUP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME, BUT SPATIOTEMPORAL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DRAMATICALLY TO IFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH DIMINISHED VISIBILITY NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PREVAILING VISIBILITY
AT JBR OF LESS THAN 1 MILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF THIS OCCURRING IS MORE LIKE 20% (1-3 MILE VISIBILITY IS MORE
LIKELY). GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT MEM/TUP
AHEAD OF A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL WARRANT
MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AFTER 18Z.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-048-051.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...MJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page