998
FXUS64 KMEG 300909
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM THE LOW.
THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY OVER AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH
NORTH OF I-40 WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE, DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE ZONAL STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT, SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
INITIALLY LIMITED IMPACTS. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH A MORE LIKELY
AFTERNOON LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST CAMS KEEP THE MEM AREA
VERY CLOSE TO THE PERSIST BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
CURRENT TAF. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MORE FOCUSED OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRIMARY WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. PROB30 THUNDER WAS INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-048-051.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...MJ
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