761
FXUS64 KMEG 301150
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
550 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM THE LOW.
THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY OVER AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH
NORTH OF I-40 WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE, DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE ZONAL STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT, SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT TODAY,
ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BREAKS IN RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARDS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OVERALL WITH THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SE/S
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-048-051.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...CJC
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