102
FXUS64 KMEG 030853
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID-
SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
ANOTHER QUIET, CHILLY NIGHT IS PRESENT AT THIS HOUR AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH PREDOMINATELY
CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS A CIRRUS DECK IS BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS USHERED IN.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S ALONG
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 10 DAYS.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON TOMORROW AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AN ATTENDANT STRONGLY OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS TOMORROW MORNING,
RAPIDLY INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED READINGS UP TO 30
MPH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6AM TOMORROW MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ALSO GREATLY
INCREASE OUR MOISTURE PROFILE AND GIVE LIFT TO SHOWERS AND A FEW
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FALL TOMORROW MORNING. AS WE
MOVE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A WINDOW OPENS UP AS GREAT
KINEMATICS AND AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE BEST SHEAR AND CAPE
FIELD MORE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA, IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
HOWEVER, IF DEWPOINTS SURGE FARTHER NORTH, INTO OUR AREA, WE COULD
SEE BETTER SEVERE PROBS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A HIGH 0-6 BULK SHEAR (70-80 KTS), LOW CAPE (<500 J/KG)
ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS TOMORROW WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS SURGE AROUND 1.6", NEARING THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW, BEST
PLACEMENT OF KINEMATICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN LINE WILL BE
REALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE STATE
LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE OUR AREA BY
9PM TOMORROW.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, PAST THE MID-SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE EASTERN UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6PM WEDNESDAY
FOR SUCH CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY, WINDS FINALLY DAMPEN AS THE
UPPER-LOW PUSHES EAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW FALLS BACK OVER THE
REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM UPPER
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING GIVING LIFT TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SE BY MID MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PICK UP TOMORROW NIGHT AT MEM AND JBR
WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...AC3
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