157
FXUS64 KMEG 040538
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- VERY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
MID-SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S. VERY DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG THE
TN RIVER. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A LINE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS TO PRECEDE THE LINE AS WELL. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY STRONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
80 KTS AND HELICITY VALUES THAT ARE OFF THE CHARTS. AN 80+ KT LLJ
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS WELL. GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL GUST TO OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING EVEN HIGHER VALUES SINCE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS DRY AND COULD BE WELL MIXED. REACHING THE HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF 58 MPH GUSTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS
TOO SOON TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THAT BUT WILL BEEF UP THE GUSTS
IN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER EAST AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
REACH MEMPHIS AROUND 4-5 PM AND EXIT INTO MIDDLE TN AND AL AROUND
8 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
STORMS MAY TAP HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE.
THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS REALLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SBCAPE/MLCAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PINCHED OFF AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. ALSO, THE SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT HELICITY
TRACKS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MID-SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE TORNADO
THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS PRETTY SMALL GIVEN THE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO WEDNESDAY WITH FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM WED. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON WED.
COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S BY FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS CHANGING RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
IMPACTFUL TAF PERIOD AHEAD AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
IN TO THE MIDSOUTH. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED WITH
SURFACE WINDS AND LLWS ON THE RISE. THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW AS VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LLWS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST, BRINGING A BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONGER
GUSTS AND LOWER CIGS. AFTER THE LINE, MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR A
FEW HOURS ALONGSIDE STRONG LLWS BEFORE POSSIBLY BEING ERODED BY
DRY AIR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB
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