943
FXUS64 KMEG 042031
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
231 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.
- VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
MID-SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS COVERING THE MID-SOUTH. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA.
GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET
CORE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BRING DOWN SOME OF THOSE STRONGER
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THE QUESTION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE EXTENT
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF
I-55. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING WITH THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS PLACING SIGNIFICANT VALUES ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. ONLY A COUPLE OF MEMBERS OF THE 12Z HREF
BRING MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF SBCAPE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH MS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A TORNADO ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS BUT THE THREAT IS PRETTY
LOW. PRIMARY RISK CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS PERHAPS
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH. THE WOFS SHOWS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
THE CONVECTION NEEDS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST, LIKE THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING, FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT INTO MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL BY MID
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND REMAIN GUSTY ALL NIGHT. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. A
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPS WILL WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS AND SW WINDS DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY.
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MID-
SOUTH OR THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO
THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOMETIME SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS
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