433
FXUS64 KMEG 050331
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 922 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
MID-SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
THE MAIN COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER, ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION PIVOTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND WINDY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
UPDATED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. SMALL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURE
GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.
AC3
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS COVERING THE MID-SOUTH. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA.
GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET
CORE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BRING DOWN SOME OF THOSE STRONGER
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THE QUESTION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE EXTENT
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF
I-55. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING WITH THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS PLACING SIGNIFICANT VALUES ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. ONLY A COUPLE OF MEMBERS OF THE 12Z HREF
BRING MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF SBCAPE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH MS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A TORNADO ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS BUT THE THREAT IS PRETTY
LOW. PRIMARY RISK CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS PERHAPS
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH. THE WOFS SHOWS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
THE CONVECTION NEEDS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST, LIKE THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING, FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT INTO MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL BY MID
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND REMAIN GUSTY ALL NIGHT. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. A
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPS WILL WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS AND SW WINDS DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY.
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MID-
SOUTH OR THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO
THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOMETIME SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A BUSY AVIATION PERIOD WILL PERSIST AS PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS,
AND MVFR CIGS IMPACT THE AIRSPACE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH TUP
MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY TS ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED, GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS.
MVFR CIGS LOOK TO MOVE IN BY SUNRISE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page