738
FXUS64 KMEG 060433
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
-MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-SHOWERY WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SHOWERS EMERGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
-DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
WIDESPREAD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE MID- SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. THICK STRATUS AND EXCELLENT MIXING FROM THE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES
YET TODAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN AROUND SUNSET AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THUS WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
6 PM TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AS THE MOISTURE PULLS WITH THE MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THROUGH SUNSET.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FOR
THURSDAY RETURNING DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES. THURSDAY'S EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. ONE THING TO ADD
FOR THURSDAY IS WITH THE RETURN OF DRY AIR, RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
NEAR 30% IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS BLUSTERY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS, BE MINDFUL OF ANY
BURNING AS FORECAST 10 HR FUELS ARE 11-15% WITH MODERATE FIRE
DANGER.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL EMERGE ON A EASTERLY TRACK. THIS PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY
STRETCH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
RETURN. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE LINGERING DRY AIR AND PW VALUES THAT ARE
AVERAGE (0.5") FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL AIM ITS COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA. WITH PRETTY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW, FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR WARMEST DAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BUT LESS THAN AN INCH OF QPF IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF CONVECTION, LREF MEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
200 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND 60-80KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PRESENT. THE REASONABLE WORST CARE SCENARIO FROM THE LREF
SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF ~500J/KG AND 70-90KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THIS VERIFIES. THE
QUESTION FOR FRIDAY WILL REMAIN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING THE 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK
WEEK. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH
A PATTERN CHANGE BY MIDWEEK. DETAILS ARE FUZZY THIS FAR OUT, BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LONG
TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST
LOOKS AT THIS GUIDANCE ARE FAVORABLE FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND DECENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFICS ON SEVERITY OF STORMS.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS ON THURSDAY,
THEN BECOME LIGHT BY THURSDAY EVENING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC
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