382
FXUS64 KMEG 061101
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
501 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
-MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-LIGHT SHOWERS EMERGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
-DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
A BIT CHILLIER THIS MORNING AS AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS SETTING
IN WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AT THE SURFACE, UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONTINUES, WIND GUSTS FINALLY DROP OUT, AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
COME TOMORROW, WE'LL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AND PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN. TOMORROW EVENING, A SURFACE LOW WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, GIVING LIFT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS, BROUGHT IN BY
A CUT-OFF LOW PUSHING IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION, WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY, BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.
COME SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION, DRYING US OUT AND BEGINNING YET
ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES QUITE UNSETTLED. THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT AND
IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, ENSEMBLES HAVE A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT TOO
EARLY TO TALK ABOUT EXACT KINEMATICS, BUT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
OUR NEXT SEVERE EVENT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
MID- SOUTH ALONG STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS... STAY TUNED.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. NW
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, FINALLY
SETTLING BACK TO S/SE AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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