680
FXUS64 KMEG 070533
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
-MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-LIGHT SHOWERS EMERGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
-DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED IN THE MIDSOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT HAVE
RESULTED IN CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TOMORROW AS BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHIFT EAST
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. RETURN FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL US
TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW LONG SHOWERS WILL LINGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MOST OF
THE AREA IN THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH DRY
AIR AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER A VEIL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH POST-SUNRISE. EXPECT A
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS. A FEW OF THE HRW
CAMS BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM-
DERIVED GUIDANCE EVEN GOES IFR, NOT INCONSISTENT WITH IT'S COOL
SEASON PREFRONTAL IFR BIAS. OFFICIAL TAFS BALANCED BETWEEN VFR
LAMP/NBM GUIDANCE AND BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CIGS.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RELAX A BIT FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST 30-40KT AT MEM, PRESENTING SOME
COMPRESSION POTENTIAL.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB
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