201
FXUS64 KMEG 070815
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
215 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60-80%) ACROSS NORTH
MS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
AMPLE WAA TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS SPANNING
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS EARLIER
THIS WEEK, SOME OCCASIONAL 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
A FEW CAMS WANT TO BRING SOME PRE-FRONTAL, LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
THE TN/KY LINE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA
REMAINING TOO DRY FOR MOST OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. IF THERE
WERE ANYWHERE THAT THIS DRY AIR WOULD BE OVERCOME, IT WOULD LIKELY
BE ACROSS THE TN/KY LINE SO HAVE LEFT IN A VERY SMALL (10-15%)
CHANCE OF POPS OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT AS MENTIONED EARLIER
THINK IT WOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE MOST PART.
WEEKEND FORECAST DOES REMAIN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOME POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BEST CHANCES (60 TO 80%) FOR SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH MS.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH MS THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SEEING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND'S
FRONTAL SYSTEM, BRINGING A DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN BACK TO
THE MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SPAN
THE 60S MONDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH
LIKELY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD
AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT LEANING
TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. DESPITE AMPLE
FORCING, GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO SHOW A LACK OF INSTABILITY NEEDED
FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WON'T RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE EARLIER AND FASTER SOLUTION PLAYS
OUT, BUT THINK ANYTHING ORGANIZED WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS THINGS STAND FOR NOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH DRY
AIR AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER A VEIL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH POST-SUNRISE. EXPECT A
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS. A FEW OF THE HRW
CAMS BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM-
DERIVED GUIDANCE EVEN GOES IFR, NOT INCONSISTENT WITH IT'S COOL
SEASON PREFRONTAL IFR BIAS. OFFICIAL TAFS BALANCED BETWEEN VFR
LAMP/NBM GUIDANCE AND BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CIGS.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RELAX A BIT FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST 30-40KT AT MEM, PRESENTING SOME
COMPRESSION POTENTIAL.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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