636
FXUS64 KMEG 080019
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60-80%) OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTH MS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-
HALF INCH.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO KANSAS AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. GOES-16 SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A PLUME OF
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CST RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-40, AND 60S SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A RAIN
SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW OVERALL WITH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
OCCURRENCE REMAINS VERY LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER TO
ONE-HALF INCH.
LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS MAY BE CONDUCIVE PERHAPS FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR CONDS ARE RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR IS INDICATING
PERHAPS A VERY SHORT LIVED MVFR DECK MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD
FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO JBR,
MKL AND MEM FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL VEER N
OVERNIGHT THEN NE ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM
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