143
FXUS64 KMEG 081756
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1156 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(60-70%) WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH MS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO 60S TODAY AND
TOMORROW, BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SLOWLY FILTERING IN BEHIND. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH IT
LOOKING LIKE A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY TODAY. POPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ACROSS NORTH MS, WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK, AND WHILE I WON'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO OVER NORTH MS THE CHANCES REMAIN PRETTY LOW GIVEN THE SET
UP. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1/4" AND 1/2" ACROSS
NORTH MS AND LIKELY REMAIN < 1/4" NORTH OF THE TN/MS STATE LINE.
IN ADDITION, I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
TN/KY LINE AND THE MO BOOTHEEL DON'T SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TOMORROW EVENING, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY, WITH A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS REPLACING IT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 60S
ON MONDAY, BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND LIKELY
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK INTO AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
FAST-MOVING, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS PROGRESSION EVEN MORE
THAN THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LIKELY NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY RATHER THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED
PREVIOUSLY. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW A LITTLE BIT
MORE INSTABILITY TO ENTER THE REGION WITH THIS SLOW DOWN, WHICH
IN TURN COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VAST MODEL SPREAD AND THIS REMAINING IN THE DAY
5 TO 6 RANGE, CONFIDENCE IS VERY, VERY LOW IN THE ULTIMATE
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. VCSH POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-11
KTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC
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