649
FXUS64 KMEG 082107
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
307 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 306 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(60-70%) WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO 60S TODAY AND
TOMORROW, BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
CLOUDY, BUT DRY, WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS
STRONG CONFLUENT WINDS ALOFT BUILD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS ALREADY BEGUN PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST ALONG A SURFACE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRODUCING RAIN TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALOFT ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RISE OUTSIDE OF EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT, OFFERING ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION, WHICH
WILL BE MOST LIKELY CONCENTRATED WITHIN FRONTOGENETIC BANDS. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HEIGHTENED LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY,
REMAINING LIGHT, AND LEAVE THE REGION BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH CLEARER
WEATHER BEHIND IT UNDER A SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL REGIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. LREF/NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS
OPTIMISTIC THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 F BY
WEDNESDAY JUST BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHOSE LESS
AMPLIFIED AND FAST SPEED COULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST AS GUIDANCE HAS
BECOME MORE ADAMANT ON BRINGING MUCAPE/SBCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
SPREAD STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF ANY BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. THEREFORE, IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN THE SEVERITY OF ANY
STORMS OR ASSOCIATED INCREASES TO RAINFALL ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME
WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MESOSCALE ON WEDNESDAY,
LONG-TERM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A REMARKABLE HANDLE ON THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE LATTER DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. A
NEW, MORE POTENT TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE
TO WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/NBM/LREF
ALL AGREE THAT HIGHER-QUALITY MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WELL NORTH OF
EVEN THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, CIPS AND CSU ML SEVERE
PROBS ARE ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF TIME FOR GUIDANCE TO SHUFFLE WITH REGARDS TO THE PHASE,
AMPLITUDE, AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT
OUR HAZARDS. BUT REGARDLESS, A SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EMERGING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. VCSH POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NE WINDS BETWEEN 7-11
KTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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