452
FXUS64 KMEG 091117
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
- SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (60-70%) ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S MONDAY AND 70S ON TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WEST TN. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS
LIKELY ACROSS NORTH MS, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN
INCH. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX,
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
INTO TOMORROW, A WARMER AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE
MID-SOUTH AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID 60S ON MONDAY, JUMPING BACK
INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING AT OR BELOW
HALF AN INCH ONCE AGAIN. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE MIX, BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. ANY
BREAK BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND HOW
QUICKLY IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT MOST SOLUTIONS DO BRING AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR FRIDAY. SPECIFICS ON ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE HASHED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD REACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS
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