318
FXUS64 KMEG 140429
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH THE HIGH TO OUR EAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILD
AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY AND WARM AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS SOUTH
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR FORECAST WITH CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALONGSIDE LLWS AROUND 50 KNOTS. THROUGH
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL VEER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR GUSTS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO PIN
DOWN IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. GIVEN RELATIVELY
DRY SURFACE AIR AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION, IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z AT JBR/MEM/MKL.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AFTER 00Z FOR ALL SITES OTHER THAN TUP. CIGS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AT 5000 FT OR ABOVE AT ALL TERMINALS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...JAB
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