652
FXUS64 KMEG 140836
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF A
LIMITING FACTOR BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE, NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY WARM TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT RESULTING
IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDWEEK, A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD
BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 80-100KT JET
APPROACHES THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
IT'S A BIT EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN LONGER TERM GUIDANCE,
BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR FORECAST WITH CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALONGSIDE LLWS AROUND 50 KNOTS. THROUGH
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL VEER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR GUSTS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO PIN
DOWN IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. GIVEN RELATIVELY
DRY SURFACE AIR AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION, IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z AT JBR/MEM/MKL.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AFTER 00Z FOR ALL SITES OTHER THAN TUP. CIGS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AT 5000 FT OR ABOVE AT ALL TERMINALS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB
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