076
FXUS64 KMEG 141716
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED BLOWING DUST HAS
BEEN REPORTED PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH READINGS AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH
COMBINED WITH HEATING WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TN RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF A
LIMITING FACTOR BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE, NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY WARM TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT RESULTING
IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDWEEK, A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD
BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 80-100KT JET
APPROACHES THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
IT'S A BIT EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN LONGER TERM GUIDANCE,
BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SHORT TERM MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING AT 21Z FOR KJBR, 23Z FOR
KMKL, 00Z FOR KMEM, AND 03Z FOR KTUP. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS
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