282
FXUS64 KMEG 142327
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A BREEZY AND MILD DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH SW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH IN SPOTS. ISOLATED BLOWING DUST HAS
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE DELTA. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. A
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND WAS LOCATED FROM
THE OH RIVER TO SE MO INTO NW AR AT 18Z.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. BETWEEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING
SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT THOUGH A MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS WEST TN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MS.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO SEEM TO FAVOR QUITE A BIT
OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH MAY KEEP THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE WEEKEND FAIRLY
DRY SOUTH OF I-40 WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE KY/MO BORDERS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO SCALE UP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR TAF FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF
THE PERIOD.
VFR CIGS AT 7000 FT ARE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SHOWERS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BY KNQA ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, LEAVING ALL SITES BY 10Z. ALONGSIDE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL LEAVE/ERODE
BY 18Z WITH GUSTY WINDS RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB
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