132
FXUS64 KMEG 150831
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 320 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A BREEZY MORNING IS PRESENT AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH A NICE ALTOSTRATUS
DECK MOVING OVER THE MID-SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW
JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. LOWERED
DEWPOINTS WILL POSE A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS WE STAY FIXED UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THURSDAY MORNING, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN, WARMING US BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. COME FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH, WARMING TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE, SOME AREAS REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY EVENING, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW STARTS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS
PUSHING IN FROM THE WESTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR, AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL ALONG THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY STATELINE THROUGH SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 NOT SEEING MUCH, IF ANY
RAINFALL.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO EJECT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCREASING OUR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. AS
FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED, SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVING INTO
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS INTERESTING AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WE'RE A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT
SPECIFIC SEMANTICS, BUT LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES HAVE A GREATER
THAN 50% CHANCE OF ADEQUATE CAPE AND BULK WIND SHEAR FIELDS ALONG
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. STAY TUNED...
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FIRST 6
HOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN TN DURING THE EVENING, BUT MEM ACARS SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
MID-LEVEL INVERSION THAT SHOULD NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. REGARDLESS, VCSH
IS LIKELY AT MEM/MKL/TUP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONGSIDE 6-7 KFT CIGS THAT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES, DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY
AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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