824
FXUS64 KMEG 151546
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS BELOW 30F IN PLACES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A BREEZY MORNING IS PRESENT AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH A NICE ALTOSTRATUS
DECK MOVING OVER THE MID-SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW
JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. LOWERED
DEWPOINTS WILL POSE A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS WE STAY FIXED UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THURSDAY MORNING, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN, WARMING US BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. COME FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH, WARMING TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE, SOME AREAS REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY EVENING, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW STARTS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS
PUSHING IN FROM THE WESTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR, AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL ALONG THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY STATELINE THROUGH SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 NOT SEEING MUCH, IF ANY
RAINFALL.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO EJECT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCREASING OUR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. AS
FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED, SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVING INTO
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS INTERESTING AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WE'RE A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT
SPECIFIC SEMANTICS, BUT LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES HAVE A GREATER
THAN 50% CHANCE OF ADEQUATE CAPE AND BULK WIND SHEAR FIELDS ALONG
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. STAY TUNED...
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
GUSTS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA
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