491
FXUS64 KMEG 152320
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS FILTERED INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE IS AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET.
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN MONROE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND CANNOT RULE OUT A 39F READING
SOMEWHERE LIKE PARIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A NICE SPRING DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, PLENTY OF
SUN AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY MIGHT BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG
THE KY/MO BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY
FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG THE KY/MO BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DECREASE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS THE
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW VARIES. 12Z
RUNS EJECT THE LOW MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THE STORMS WILL ALSO EXIT MORE QUICKLY,
PERHAPS BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AND INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WE EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY THOUGH STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH DETAIL.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVER NE MS TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF NE AR. THESE AMOUNTS
COULD GO HIGHER IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER SOUTH OR THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN. THE NBM90PCT IS SHOWING MUCH HIGHER VALUES SO WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. LAKE WAPPAPELLO THAT FEEDS THE ST.
FRANCIS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT EXTEND THE FLOODING ALONG
THAT RIVER.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
SHOULD GET A BREAK MONDAY BUT IT COULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SOME
MODELS HAVE PRECIP BACK ON OUR DOORSTEP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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