161
FXUS64 KMEG 170423
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IS RESULTING IN A SUNNY AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 2 PM CDT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE MO/KY BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SHORT-
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO PRECLUDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. OTHERWISE, SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF RAIN FREE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO
THE 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO THE 60S FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
LONG-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE AREA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT, AND INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND
SYSTEM AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER SOLUTION
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. LREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG
AND BULK WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS RANGE BETWEEN 40-50
PERCENT FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TO 2+ INCHES OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF THE FRONT
STALLS OUT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS LAKE WAPPAPELLO WHICH FEEDS THE ST. FRANCIS
RIVER COULD SEE AN EXTENSION OF FLOODING WITH ANY HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY
PARALLEL TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT JBR AND MEM BY
MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 22-25 KT RANGE. A 45KT
LLJ WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING, PROMPTING THE NEED FOR MENTION
OF LLWS AT ALL SITES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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