986
FXUS64 KMEG 171133
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
A PLEASANT NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. A VERY THIN ALTOSTRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST, ACROSS OUR AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING SETS IN
OVER THE MID-SOUTH. TOMORROW, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BUILD IN. THUS, TOMORROW WILL BE A PRETTY WARM ONE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WILL BE QUITE WINDY TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
STRONG RETURN FLOW. HAD THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVISORY OVER THESE
COUNTIES FOR TODAY, BUT WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF AS WE'LL LIKELY
FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SLAM
DUNK FOR 40 MPH+ WIND GUSTS, A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
BY TOMORROW EVENING, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY STATELINE WHILE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AS
THIS FRONT STALLS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE,
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW AND STALL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA THAN PREVIOUS THINKING'S. THUS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PROBS SATURDAY HAVE BEEN HELD TO MORE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH COMPARATIVE TO PREVIOUS RUNS. A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS IN THESE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
JOINT PROBS FOR SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 30 KTS ARE ONLY AROUND 35%.
COME SUNDAY MORNING, A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PIVOT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID-
SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH WE'RE ONLY FOUR DAYS OUT, UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH THE ONSET, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AXIS, A FEW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS COULD PLAY OUT WITH SEVERE
WEATHER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG WITH THE FASTER
SOLUTION, PUSHING THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHERE AS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION, THE EURO, HAS STORMS NOT INITIATING UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. THEREFORE, BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THERMODYNAMIC SET UP ALIGNS WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH JOINT PROBS GREATER THAN 60% FOR 700
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR AND DECENT
HEIGHT FALLS.
FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND ARE UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. PERSISTENT
RIVER FLOODING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WILL BE AT RISK WITH INCREASED RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES, THUS, VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM ALONG THESE. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED..
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY AFTER 16Z, WITH GUSTY WINDS BY THAT TIME THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY
GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z AT ALL TAF SITES (04Z TO 10Z FOR
TUP).
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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