047
FXUS64 KMEG 171938
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ADVECTING
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CDT ARE
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN-FREE
WEATHER TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 80S. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS
ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY IF
THESE FORECAST TRENDS PERSIST IN THE UPCOMING 00Z MODEL RUN.
TODAY'S 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST WITH THE
UPSTREAM AXIS OF RAIN AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRIEFLY
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS THE CWA. NONETHELESS,
UPSTREAM RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS AND PERSISTENT RIVER FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND BETTER
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND
A SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LREF
JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AT LEAST 500
J/KG, AND BULK WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS MAY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ALONG
WITH ANY MORE SPECIFIC THREATS.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A RETURN OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LLWS LIKELY TONIGHT AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR TUP. CAMS ARE STILL CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A
MVFR DECK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE, OPTED TO LEAVE IT SCATTERED.
DNM
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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