711
FXUS64 KMEG 181120
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL WITH 40 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
OVERALL A QUIET EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED A BIT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP EVEN
MORE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
AREA. CONSIDERING THAT WE OVER ACHIEVED ON MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
YESTERDAY, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AS WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 40
TO 45 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. NBM PROBABILITIES
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 60 TO 80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING OUR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-
SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY NONETHELESS. SOMETHING ELSE TO MENTION WITH THE WINDS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST ONCE AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WIND ADVISORY AREA. KNOW SEVERAL LOCATIONS SAW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS PICKED UP AND THERE
IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT THIS WOULDN'T HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN THE 80S ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON.
REALLY THE BIG FORECAST NOTE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS
BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE
POPS AND QPF FOR OUR AREA LARGELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED (40 TO 50%) POPS SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL, BUT I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS.
AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THESE POPS, THERE COULD
BE A LIMITED WINDOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LOW, BUT I WON'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TO THE
AREA. MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHER POPS NOT
REALLY REACHING THE MID-SOUTH UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO LESS OF A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS WOULD BE TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG TO WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, THERE IS SOME GROWING CONCERN AS
TO OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. IF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN, THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MS. I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS YET, BUT
IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN < 1 INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH, SO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER,
RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING
UP. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED (30% TO 50%+)
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH
BUT SHOULD END LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS
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