695
FXUS64 KMEG 030944
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
444 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS. AN THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AHEAD O
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY, THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT-OFF
LOW, CENTERED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH,
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS. 700MB
AND 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO -5C AND -25C, RESPECTIVELY.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 70F, COLD TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF MEMPHIS, BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT, AS DRIER POST-
FRONTAL AIR FLOWS IN. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE
TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY) TO
BRING SOME WRAP AROUND ELEVATED MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OUT
WEST, NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, DISPLACING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO
OUR EAST.
RAIN SHOULD END OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY,
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AREAS NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLY PLACED FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER JET AND MARITIME SURFACE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE REGION. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS
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