725
FXUS64 KMEG 031557
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS. AN THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MEANWHILE, LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE MID-SOUTH. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS SHOW A A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER BACK THROUGH
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT
SHAPE OVERALL.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AHEAD O
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY, THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT-OFF
LOW, CENTERED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH,
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS. 700MB
AND 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO -5C AND -25C, RESPECTIVELY.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 70F, COLD TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF MEMPHIS, BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT, AS DRIER POST-
FRONTAL AIR FLOWS IN. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE
TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY) TO
BRING SOME WRAP AROUND ELEVATED MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OUT
WEST, NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, DISPLACING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO
OUR EAST.
RAIN SHOULD END OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY,
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AREAS NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLY PLACED FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER JET AND MARITIME SURFACE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM TO TRAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BY 18Z, CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE FINISHED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MOST SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS IN THIS MORNING, BUT POST-FRONTAL LOW
STRATUS WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER MKL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF MEM AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THE TRENDS OF THE
WESTERNMOST EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJC
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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