388
FXUS64 KMEG 032318
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS.
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER ST. LOUIS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE AND WEST TENNESSEE, AND INTO MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR MEMPHIS.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE TN
RIVER. A MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING, WITH DROPS EXPECTED FOR MKL AND TUP. DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT MEM FOR NOW. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTY, NW WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 6 KTS OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE RETURNING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA
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