230
FXUS64 KMEG 040400
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS.
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY MAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO WEST TENNESSEE. AS A
RESULT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT WITH THESE SHOWERS.
ARS
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER ST. LOUIS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE AND WEST TENNESSEE, AND INTO MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR MEMPHIS.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A MVFR CLOUD DECK
JUST TO THE NORTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING MKL AND TUP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MEM. MVFR DECK
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH VFR RETURNING
AREAWIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY NW WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KTS THROUGH 05/00Z, BEFORE WINDS CALM AND BECOME VARIABLE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...CMA
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