526
FXUS64 KMEG 041140
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, WITH UP TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, MOVING LITTLE DUE TO A HYBRID OMEGA/REX
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL AVERAGE 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING THE COOLEST TEMPS TO NORTHWEST TN.
MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MONDAY, ALONG WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. THE SUN WILL LIKELY PLAY A LARGER
ROLE IN WARMING TEMPERATURES, BEING QUITE STRONG JUST UNDER SEVEN
WEEKS FROM THE SOLSTICE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TO THE WEST, ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE OUR
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE BULK OF OUR WEEKLY TOTAL
RAINFALL, AIDED BY PWAT VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. OVER THE
MIDSOUTH, INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS CLOSER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. NBM
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS TIME-LAGGED NBM
MEMBERS FALL OUT OF THE BLEND, NEXT WEEKEND'S FORECAST MAY TREND
DRIER IF CURRENT GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING ABOUT THE OH RIVER VALLEY
MAY CAUSE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. WINDS WILL
HOLD STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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