177
FXUS64 KMEG 050217
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
917 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 912 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO THE 70S BY
TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
MID-SOUTH WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN
BE FOUND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEAVING DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
ARS
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
MEANWHILE, PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH 2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
THEN DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON
MONDAY, AND 70S AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 0.25-0.5 INCHES NORTH, AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
LATEST 12Z DETERMINISTIC LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID-SOUTH BY
LATE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED OR
REMOVED FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND IF LATER ENSEMBLE RUNS TREND
TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SHRA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE,
BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15Z AND PICKING BACK
UP TO AROUND 7 KTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA
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