677
FXUS64 KMEG 051139
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, WHERE UP TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY'S HIGHS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST TN THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THANKS TO 700MB TEMPS OF -5C. THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE, UNDER A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY
TUESDAY, IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT, REACHING WESTERN PA BY
AFTERNOON.
OUT WEST, A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW, AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE AND STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES NEAR THE
I-20 CORRIDOR, AIDED BY A MARITIME WARM FRONT. NORTH MS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE
BRIEFLY DRIVING PWAT VALUES TO 1.6 INCHES AROUND CLARKSDALE TUESDAY
EVENING. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS NORTH MS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO NORTHERN LA. THURSDAY APPEARS TO HOLD THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH, AIDED BY A PAIR OF CYCLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER JET STREAKS AND MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
THEREAFTER, SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM STILL MAINTAINS
CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE MS THIS WEEKEND. 00Z LREF, WHICH DOES NOT
CONTAIN TIME-LAGGED MEMBERS, DEPICTS LESS THAN ZERO TO 0.05 INCH
QPF EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS WE ARE IN THE RIDGING
PHASE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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